EmailEconomic
Last Update: 17-May-12 08:46 ET
Initial Claims
Highlights
- The initial claims level for the week ending May 12 was unchanged at 370,000 after being revised up from 367,000 for the week ending May 5. The Briefing.com consensus pegged the initial claims level at 365,000.
- The continuing claims level increased from 3.247 mln for the week ending April 28 to 3.265 mln for the week ending May 5. The consensus expected continuing claims to increase to 3.250 mln.
Key Factors
- For the past three weeks, the initial claims level has remained near the 370,000 mark. This is a clear sign that the elevated claims levels following the Easter holiday were due to poor seasonal adjustments and not a change in labor demand.
- Current claims are consistent with payroll gains in excess of 150,000 per month, yet the level may need to fall closer to 360,000 before it could support regular payroll gains above 200,000.
Big Picture
- After a three week disruption in April caused by seasonal adjustment problems surrounding the Easter holiday, the initial claims level has returned to its previous trend.
| Category | May 12 | May 5 | Apr 28 | Apr 21 | Apr 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 370K | 370K | 368K | 392K | 389K |
| 4-Wk Moving Avg | 375K | 380K | 384K | 383K | 376K |
| Continued Benefits | 3265K | 3247K | 3290K | 3329K | |
| 4-Wk Moving Avg | 3283K | 3295K | 3301K | 3315K |
