EmailThe Conference Board's Consumer Confidence spiked to 56.0 in November from 40.9 in October. That was well ahead of the Briefing.com consensus estimate, which called for a more modest jump to 42.5, and the October reading of 40.9. The November level is close to the level seen in July 2011 or before the debt ceiling debacle really cranked up in Congress.
There was a notable pickup in both the Present Situation Index (to 38.3 from 27.1) and the Expectations Index (to 67.8 from 50.0). The uptick in the Present Situation Index follows six months of steady declines.
The cutoff date for this preliminary reading was November 15. That may help explain the spike in confidence as the time between the October reading and then was accented by an improvement in equity prices and a moderation in gas prices and initial jobless claims.
The equity market has since been more volatile, which calls into question the sustainability of the November reading. Nonetheless, this report follows on the heels of encouraging reports about sales activity following the Thanksgiving holiday (i.e. after the cutoff date for this report) and is being rightfully treated by the market as a hopeful indication as it relates to the U.S. economy.
