EmailThe initial claims level increased from an upwardly revised 412,000 (from 409,000) for the week ending August 27 to 414,000 for the week ending September 3. The Briefing.com consensus expected the initial claims level to fall to 400,000.
The initial claims level has crept back above the upper bound (410,000) of our "Recovery Zone" for the last two weeks. This suggests that payroll gains in excess of 100,000 per month are unlikely.
Initial claims, unfortunately, are now in-line with the no growth or low growth scenario that was revealed in the August employment report. The continuing claims level declined from 3.747 million for the week ending August 20 to 3.717 million for the week ending August 27. The consensus expected the continuing claims level to fall to 3.700 million.
