EmailThe initial claims level declined from 402,000 for the week ending January 7 to 352,000 for the week ending January 14. That is the lowest claims level since the week ending April 19, 2008. The Briefing.com consensus expected the initial claims level to decline to 385,000.
The Department of Labor announced that the recent volatility in the initial claims level is normal. Seasonal adjustment factors tend to have difficulties smoothing the data during and immediately after the holiday season. The substantial decline in the initial claims level in the last week does not necessarily represent a like-size improvement in the labor sector.
The DOL suggests focusing on the four-week average to get a better indication of how the labor market is performing during these volatile times. That level declined from 382,500 for the week ending January 7 to 379,000 for the week ending January 14. While this is an improvement on a week-to-week basis, the four-week average has been tightly bound between 382,500 and 374,000 since the week ending December 16.
The continuing claims level declined from 3.647 mln for the week ending December 31 to 3.432 mln for the week ending January 7. That is the lowest continuing claims level since August 2008 and well below the consensus forecast of 3.600 mln.
