EmailAfter four consecutive weeks below 400,000, the initial claims level increased from 396,000 for the week ending November 19 to 402,000 for the week ending November 26. The Briefing.com consensus expected the initial claims level to fall to 390,000.
According to the DOL, there was nothing unusual in the data that caused the increase in claims. The DOL cautions, however, that it is difficult to estimate the seasonal effects during a holiday ( in this case Thanksgiving) week.
Therefore, a reversal in claims next week may be the result of seasonal adjustments returning to normal and not necessarily a change in the employment situation. Even after the increase, the initial claims level remained below the 410,000 upper bound of our "Recovery Zone" and does not change our outlook of moderate monthly payroll gains.
The continuing claims level increased from 3.705 mln for the week ending November 12 to 3.740 mln for the week ending November 19. That is the highest level of continuing claims since the week ending September 17. The consensus expected continuing claims to fall to 3.650 mln.
