EmailStory Stocks®
Archive
Last Update: 10-Nov-11 09:26 ET
Jobless Claims
The initial claims level declined from an upwardly revised 400,000 (from 397,000) for the week ending October 29 to 390,000 for the week ending November 5. The Briefing.com consensus expected initial claims to remain at 400,000.
For the past several weeks, the initial claims level has remained below the upper bound (410,000) of our "Recovery Zone." In the past, this would signal payroll gains in excess of the 100,000 necessary to support normal labor force growth.
As the October employment report showed, however, businesses have halted their layoffs but have not increased their workforce substantially. The data suggest that, instead of 100,000 new jobs, businesses may only increase payrolls by about 75,000.
This type of slow improvement in the labor sector is consistent with the sub-par/moderate GDP growth we expect over the next several quarters.
The continuing claims level decreased from 3.683 mln for the week ending October 22 to 3.615 mln for the week ending October 29. The consensus expected continuing claims to increase to 3.690 mln.
For the past several weeks, the initial claims level has remained below the upper bound (410,000) of our "Recovery Zone." In the past, this would signal payroll gains in excess of the 100,000 necessary to support normal labor force growth.
As the October employment report showed, however, businesses have halted their layoffs but have not increased their workforce substantially. The data suggest that, instead of 100,000 new jobs, businesses may only increase payrolls by about 75,000.
This type of slow improvement in the labor sector is consistent with the sub-par/moderate GDP growth we expect over the next several quarters.
The continuing claims level decreased from 3.683 mln for the week ending October 22 to 3.615 mln for the week ending October 29. The consensus expected continuing claims to increase to 3.690 mln.
