The S&P 500 Financial Index has been a laggard today but has been able to
bounce off its lows. Sellers are attempting to drag the index lower as we head
into the FOMC announcement in approx one hour. The XLF ran into resistance at
the 13.30 area but so far has held 13 today. Volume, as tends to be the case the
week before Labor Day remains light.
News of Note
1) Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) was up as Deutsche Bank AG analysts raised its
recommendation to "buy". Lloyds Banking Group Plc (LLOY) gained 7.8% to 32.03
pence, while Barclays Plc advanced 6.7% to 165.4 pence. "We think the value
proposition is clear," Deutsche Bank analysts including Jason Napier wrote in a
note to investors today. Following a 36% decline in the share price of RBS in
the last month, Deutsche said it was raising RBS to a "buy" from "hold."
"Barclays is our top pick," wrote Napier.
2) The International Accounting Standards Board is questioning some of the
recent write downs by European financial institutions with exposure to Greece.
In a letter today it stated, "It is hard to imagine that there are buyers
willing to buy these bonds at the prices indicated... This is a matter of great
concern to us". 3) India's central bank recommended tougher capital rules for
new lenders and mandatory share sales within two years as conditions for issuing
new licenses for the first time in seven years.
4) Natl Bank of Greece posts 1H11 Results- Group net profit in 1H11 totalled EUR
29 million, excluding impairment losses on GGBs prompted by the PSI initiative
(EUR 1,339 million after tax), compared with profit of EUR 146 million in 1H10,
due to the persistence of high provisions, which amounted to EUR 822 million (up
by +27% yoy), as well as the exceptionally adverse economic climate in Greece.
In the first half of the year the NBG Group, although impacted by the decline in
deposits, which intensified in Greece during 2Q11, nevertheless managed to
increase its market share of savings deposits to 34.1% and sustain its market
share of time deposits at 15.3% in Greece. It is noteworthy that, after the EU
summit on July 21st, domestic deposits have gradually rebounded, fully reversing
the decline suffered in the first weeks of July.
5) Wunderlich notes mortgage REITs ended the week unchanged, selling at a 1%
discount to trailing book value. Volatility was fairly significant, and they
believe that the political appeal of massive loan refinancing and the benefits
to household cash flow could continue to create volatility, at least until
President Obama presents a new strategic plan in Sept. Mortgage REITs and RMBS
could remain under pressure until the size and effectiveness of any proposed
plans to refinance underwater borrowers can be evaluated.
6) Ticonderoga notes robust payout ratios, dividend yields higher than risk free
treasuries, gradually improving flows, and some signs of diverging equity flow
versus bond flow trends are painting a better picture for asset management
equities. As such, firm sees the asset manager sector getting more attractive;
reiterates Buy ratings on BLK and BEN and believes other equity-centric names
are becoming more appealing as well such as TROW and JNS. Firm would use EV as a
source of weakness in the group as it continues to feel both equity and bond
flow pressure from large cap value outflows as well as floating rate
redemptions. Within the asset management space, six of the eight asset managers
it covers have yields greater than the 10-year Treasury including BLK, EV, JNS,
IVZ, ART, and TROW.
7) FBR's Washington Policy team continues to doubt the prospects of implementing
a large-scale mortgage refinance program. FBR Capital notes that while the
market has focused on the possibility of President Obama introducing or
expanding on existing refinance programs following the Labor Day weekend, they
see limited direct benefits for the mortgage insurance industry unless seriously
delinquent borrowers are eligible for any programs, which at this point is
uncertain at best. While they are generally positive on the risk-reward for the
mortgage insurance space given current valuation, they do believe that
expectations are running fairly high into any possible housing announcement next
week.






