According to the advance estimate of third quarter GDP, the BEA assumed the trade deficit widened to about $46.0 bln in September. Unfortunately, a portion of the contraction in September was due to a net export surplus of $1.2 bln of nonmonetary gold. The BEA excludes gold in its net export calculation. This means the deficit did not contract by as much as the headline suggests and the effect on the second estimate revisions to GDP will not be as large.
Exports increased from $177.9 bln in August to $180.4 bln in September. The September gains came primarily from industrial supplies and materials ($1.4 bln, of which the entire gain came from nonmonetary gold) and consumer goods ($0.8 bln).
Imports increased from $222.8 bln in August to $223.5 bln in September. The increase in imports was due to higher demand for industrial supplies and materials ($0.9 bln) and motor vehicles and parts ($0.5 bln).






