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HOME > Our View >Page One >It's All Greek, but It...
Page One Archive
Last Update: 15-Feb-12 09:08 ET
It's All Greek, but It Shouldn't Be

It was quite a finish yesterday as the major averages stormed back in late trading from larger losses to end the session roughly flat.  The sudden turn of events was attributed to reports that a Greek party leader was going to deliver his "letter of intent" to Greek lenders today.

That headline resonated because the conservative party leader -- Antonis Samaras -- had previously expressed opposition to the troika's austerity demands.  It also resonated because Mr. Samaras is believed to have a good shot at winning the Greek election  in April and it is necessary under the bailout provision that all party leaders provide written assurances that they will not seek to change the terms of the deal after the election.

Somehow that headline made a number of U.S. companies more valuable than they were considered to be yesterday morning -- even companies that have zero exposure to Greece and Europe and for which that headline meant zero. 

The market of course has been fixated on eurozone dealings for so long that we can understand why we saw the trading response we saw, yet it is bordering on the ridiculous that the market is willing to attach so much significance to a headline that a party leader in Greece finally decided to be a pen pal with the IMF, EU and ECB.

Now, there is a Reuters report this morning that EU finance officials are considering a proposal to delay all or part of the Greek bailout.  If that is indeed the case, we should have seen more selling in the futures market.  As it turned out, the S&P futures dipped about three points (from being up 8 to being up 5) on the headline.

The subtle message there is that the dip did not match the gravity of the headline, which entails a more serious connotation than the Samaras headline late yesterday.  That makes us think the Samaras headline wasn't all it was made out to be as a market driver and that it was perhaps simply a news cue that sparked a technically-based rally that, in turn, triggered short-covering activity.

Regardless, another show of resilience by the U.S. market provided a good foundation for foreign markets in early trading on Wednesday.  To be sure, it certainly made them more receptive to uplifting news, like further reports that China intends to show its monetary support for the IMF and EFSF, and the indication that Q4 GDP reports in the eurozone were not as bad as feared.

On the latter note, France actually reported a 0.2% increase in Q4 GDP.  Germany's economy contracted 0.2%, but that was not as big a decline as expected.  GDP for the eurozone, meanwhile, declined 0.3% versus an expected 0.4% decline.

European markets are sporting modest gains as of this posting, getting a lift from a perspective that is shifting from worst case to better than feared.

The S&P futures are feeding off that perspective as well.  They are currently 0.4% above fair value.

With all of the attention on Europe, it would certainly be remiss not to point out that the Empire State Manufacturing survey showed an acceleration in regional manufacturing activity in February, with the index jumping to 19.5 (Briefing.com consensus 14.0) from 13.5 in January.

This report is another reminder that the U.S. economy -- the world's largest economy -- is doing fine in spite of what is going on in Europe.  It could still do better, of course, but it is a reassuring idea that the U.S. remains in a growth mode.

An ongoing stream of better-than-expected earnings results continues to provide that same message and, believe it or not, Congress seems to be on track to agree to an extension of the payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits through the end of the year without a deleterious show of political partisanship.

The latter is a positive development that is getting short-changed amid all of the headline silliness surrounding Greece.

--Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com

Patrick J. O'Hare is Chief Market Analyst for Briefing Research, Briefing.com's institutional research service. To request a free trial, please email researchsales@briefing.com.
 
   

It was quite a finish yesterday as the major averages stormed back in late trading from larger losses to end the session roughly flat. The sudden
 
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