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DATE

RESEARCH REPORT

23-Nov-09	Back to Business as Usual for the U.S. Auto Manufacturers? We thought an increase in auto production would be a key component in driving economic growth as the U.S. pulls out of the recession. So far, we have been wrong.
20-Nov-09	Does a Highly Volatile Dollar Affect Asset Prices? Even though a falling dollar may help the broad economy, a weak currency is often thought to harm asset prices and stunt growth. A statistical analysis of stock and bond returns yields the opposite result.
13-Nov-09	Does the U.S. Need a Strong Dollar A weaker dollar provides strength and security in an economic recovery. We feel that the government will continue to talk tough about the dollar but provide no direct policy directives to try to change its value.
02-Nov-09	Banks Have Hoarding Affliction Banks have plenty of money, they just are not lending it out freely.

29-Dec-10	Year in Research Review ‘Tis the season for year-end lists, retrospectives and prognostications. The tradition (for good or bad) has become as much a part of the holiday season as inflatable snowmen, Christmas ties, and an over indulgence of all things chocolate. So, in the spirit of the season, we have put together our "Year in Research Review" list, which highlights some of our top research notes from 2010. Topics range from commodity price inflation to the convergence of yields to the super consumer.
16-Dec-10	Trend Watch: Nov. 29 - Dec. 10, 2010 In this Trend Watch, we discuss the first major U.S. index poised to regain its 2007 highs, as reported versus operating earnings, increased M&A activity in 2011, the relationship between municipal bonds and Treasuries, and the potential for increased automobile production.
01-Dec-10	Trend Watch: Nov. 15 - 26, 2010 In this Trend Watch, we discuss a possible convergence between the prices of new and existing homes, reasons to buy California's debt, the U.K. increasing its holding of U.S. debt, a net neutrality spat, and an expansion in global drilling despite increasing regulation following the BP oil-rig disaster.
10-Nov-10	Trend Watch: Oct. 25 - Nov. 5, 2010 In this Trend Watch, we discuss the super consumer, increasing crude oil prices and their possible impact on alternative energy stocks, potential unlocked value in REITs, and Toyota's declining market share.
09-Nov-10	Financial Review: Fed Surveys Show a Lack of Loan Demand It will be interesting to see if the demand for credit, and the willingness to extend credit, increases in the wake of QE2, which occurred after the Senior Loan Officer Survey was conducted. While QE2 has started to stoke higher inflation expectations, the October survey is a reminder that broad inflation pressures should remain subdued for the time being. A separate report from the New York Fed indicated consumers were clearly in a deleveraging mind-set in 2009. If it persists, the U.S. economy seems likely to continue to grow below its potential which, in turn, should keep inflation pressures in check.
27-Oct-10	Trend Watch: Oct. 11 - 22, 2010 In this Trend Watch, we discuss the weaker dollar, a possible inflection point in private nonresidential construction spending, the effect of strong 2010 earnings results on 2011 earnings expectations, and corruption, taxes and the return (again) of sovereign debt fears.
18-Oct-10	Financial Review: Q3 2010 Bank Earnings and Sept. Trust Data The third quarter earnings reporting season began in earnest last week. Three major financial institutions have already released results -- JPMorgan Chase, GE Capital and Citigroup. We continued to look for improvements in the credit and lending market that would provide a read on credit demand. Bank earnings thus far, as well as Friday's September Trust data from banks and credit card companies, told us two things: 1) there is both statistical and anecdotal evidence that demand for loans has stopped declining and 2) credit quality continued to improve in the form of decreasing net charge offs.
13-Oct-10	Trend Watch: Sept. 27 - Oct. 8, 2010 In this Trend Watch, we discuss the differences between U.S. economic projections from the Federal Reserve/IMF and their potential impact on any further quantitative easing, the effects of austerity measures on GDP, the effect of GDP expectations on the stock market, and the potential for a good third quarter earnings season to be already priced into stocks.
29-Sep-10	Trend Watch: Sept. 13 - 24, 2010 In this Trend Watch, we discuss two uses of corporate cash, the comparison between President Obama's approval rating and the S&P 500, and the "exchange-rate war" and its impact on U.S. multinationals.
15-Sep-10	Trend Watch: Aug. 30 - Sept. 10, 2010 In this Trend Watch, we discuss a potential silver lining to the first negative capital stock reading since World War II, the catalyst for the recent surge in the Chinese renminbi, and what companies are telling the government about the expiration of the Bush tax cuts.
10-Sep-10	Sovereign Debt: Focus Shifts to Ireland The €750 bln eurozone aid package briefly narrowed sovereign spreads this summer, but did little to cure the region's underlying debt problems. Risks are now resurfacing in Ireland, which faces rising spreads and the failure of nationalized Anglo Irish Bank. This is likely just the first such reminder we should see over the medium term as the mountain of bad paper has nowhere left to go.
01-Sep-10	Trend Watch: August 16 - 27, 2010 In this Trend Watch, we discuss the relationship between earnings growth and the safety trade, homebuilders outperforming the market despite very weak housing data, and the potential effects of "hardship withdrawals" from retirement accounts.
18-Aug-10	Trend Watch: August 2 - 13, 2010 In this Trend Watch, we discuss U.S. Treasuries and China, the potential for deflation and for a double dip, the details of the rebounds at GM and Chrysler, and using "apps" for data collection.
17-Aug-10	Financial Review: Slowly Improving Credit and Lending Market Two releases yesterday, the Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices and trust data from credit card companies and banks, point to a slowly improving credit and lending market.
04-Aug-10	Trend Watch: July 19 - 30, 2010 In this Trend Watch, we are calling attention to the potential effects of government layoffs at the state and local level to the national unemployment rate, the Federal Reserve's options regarding its mortgage-backed securities' holdings, renting versus owning a home, and a proposed California tax change that could have a national impact.
21-Jul-10	Trend Watch: July 5 - 16, 2010 In this Trend Watch, we recommend the Utilities sector for professional investors looking for yield and would take profits on the recent move lower in the dollar/higher in the euro. We are also calling attention to the ongoing enterprise cycle in the tech sector and preview the upcoming midterm elections.
19-Jul-10	Financial Review: Q2 2010 Bank Earnings The results last week from JP Morgan, Citigroup, Bank of America and GE Capital, as well as June trust data, confirmed that credit losses are easing and that provisions are moving lower. Although the release of reserves has raised concerns about the quality of earnings being reported, those concerns have mistakenly overshadowed the more important aspect of the reports, which is that credit quality is improving. What remains missing, though, is loan demand.
07-Jul-10	Trend Watch: June 21 - July 2, 2010 In this Trend Watch, we are calling attention to central banks buying the euro and selling the dollar, an economic indicator that argues against deflation, the catalyst for second quarter earnings season, and the current relationship between investment-grade corporate bonds and Treasuries.
23-Jun-10	Trend Watch: June 7 - 18, 2010 In this Trend Watch, we are calling attention to a leading indicator that must not be overlooked, a new currency policy in China that may not have the intended result the market is expecting, the hoarding of cash by U.S. businesses, and the notion that land-line Internet service may be headed the way of the dinosaurs.
21-Jun-10	Credit Check: Loan Demand Remains Depressed More than a year and a half after the credit market froze, the consumption and extension of credit has yet to normalize fully. There are signs of improvement, but the extension of credit is being negatively impacted by weak demand. This environment is unlikely to change in the near term for a number of factors, from over-leveraged consumer balance sheets to concerns over the economic outlook to tight lending standards and ongoing regulatory uncertainty. Credit growth is not a prerequisite for economic growth, so we recently raised our near-term GDP forecast due to a positive shift in net export growth. High unemployment and a weak credit market, however, will serve as headwinds over the medium term. At a time when money is "free," the great paradox is that demand remains depressed.
16-Jun-10	Credit Card Trust Data -- May 2010 The May data provide further evidence that the peak in charge-off rates occurred during Q1 2010. Even a gradual ease in charge offs over the remainder of 2010 will be welcome as companies will be able to release reserves at the same time. That adds earnings power at a time when the industry is dealing with regulation issues.
09-Jun-10	Trend Watch: May 24 - June 4, 2010 Trend Watch is a succinct record of data points, news items, and abstract thoughts assembled by our analysts. The report is published every two weeks, with the primary goal of identifying emerging trends that have the potential to shape investment decisions.
27-May-10	Trend Watch: May 10-21, 2010 Trend Watch is a succinct record of data points, news items, and abstract thoughts assembled by our analysts. The report is published every two weeks, with the primary goal of identifying emerging trends that have the potential to shape investment decisions.
12-May-10	Trend Watch: April 26 - May 7, 2010 Trend Watch is a succinct record of data points, news items, and abstract thoughts assembled by our analysts. The report is published every two weeks, with the primary goal of identifying emerging trends that have the potential to shape investment decisions.
29-Apr-10	Credit Check: Is a Bottom Near? While we believe the bottoming process for the credit market will take place in H2 2010, it could be at these bottom levels for some time. Unfortunately, we do not expect the next stage of the credit recovery to be a sharp upturn. Instead, we will see much more moderate growth than during the credit boom as consumers continue to deleverage and demand for business loans remains low.
28-Apr-10	Trend Watch: April 12-23, 2010 Trend Watch is a succinct record of data points, news items, and abstract thoughts assembled by our analysts. The report is published every two weeks, with the primary goal of identifying emerging trends that have the potential to shape investment decisions.
22-Apr-10	Sovereign Debt Update: Weak Deficit Data from Greece/Ireland Eurostat, the European Union's statistics office, released official 2009 budget data this morning. For two countries in particular -- Greece and Ireland -- the results were worse than expected.
16-Apr-10	General Electric -- Less is More GE produced strong results in the first quarter, underscoring a company that has turned the corner. The outlook continues to improve, underscored by order trends and loss rates in GE Capital Services.
16-Apr-10	Credit Card Trust Data -- March 2010 While net charge-off rates came in mixed for the month, delinquencies declined, allowing us to reiterate our expectation that charge-offs will peak over the next couple of months. Although early-stage delinquencies came in mixed, roll rates improved.
15-Apr-10	Swap Spreads Turn Negative: Oddity or Foreshadowing Turmoil It is very possible that a negative spread is just a technical oddity that will have a relatively benign effect on the economy. Or, like an inverted yield curve, the spread could foreshadow malevolent things to come.
14-Apr-10	Trend Watch: March 29 - April 9, 2010 Trend Watch is a succinct record of data points, news items, and abstract thoughts assembled by our analysts. The report is published every two weeks, with the primary goal to identify emerging trends that have the potential to shape investment decisions.
14-Apr-10	JPMorgan -- A Strong Start JPMorgan Chase (JPM) kicked off the financial sector's first quarter earnings season on a strong note this morning. Credit moderated and the bank generated pre-provision earnings of $12.08 bln on a managed basis. The negative: $2.3 bln in litigation expense provisions and higher card charge offs.
13-Apr-10	Sovereign Debt: A Financial and Historical Framework The beginning of this century will be marred by the Great Credit Crisis and its aftermath. The historical precedent of default clusters has only started to reveal itself. That precedent has typically involved developing and emerging nations. This time is different.
08-Apr-10	Gaming Win: February 2010 -- Nevada, Strip Soar Win on the Las Vegas Strip has shown a year-over-year increase for four consecutive months when using the combined data for January and February. Nevada's dollar figure for February of $946.6 mln is also 18.3% above the October 2009 low of $800.3 mln. That may show that consumers are increasing their spending on discretionary items for the first time since the recession began.
30-Mar-10	Trend Watch: March 15-27, 2010 Trend Watch is a succinct record of data points, news items, and abstract thoughts assembled by our analysts. The report is published every two weeks, with the primary goal to identify emerging trends that have the potential to shape investment decisions.
18-Mar-10	FedEx: Upside Results Not Enough to Offset Other Issues Despite beating on the top and bottom lines, shares of FedEx fell by more than 3% immediately following the company's third quarter earnings release. Though they have rebounded, the selling pressure underscores the heightened level of expectations that were being priced into the stock.
16-Mar-10	FOMC Follows Form There were not any real surprises in the latest directive from the Federal Open Market Committee. Notably, the market was essentially promised that it will have access to ultra-low rates until at least the April 28 FOMC meeting.
15-Mar-10	Credit Card Trust Data -- February 2010 Credit card issuers and banks saw their net charge-off rates increase by a higher than expected amount in February, though delinquencies held steady. Despite today's bearish data, we continue to believe charge-offs will peak over the next few months.
10-Mar-10	Las Vegas Strip Revenue Declines 3% in January Nevada's Gaming Control Board released Gaming Win (revenue) figures for the month of January this morning, and the results were modestly weaker than expected. Despite the miss, casino stocks have trended higher throughout the morning.
26-Feb-10	A Check-up on China A number of noteworthy stories out of China circulated Friday morning. They show that the country is continuing with its policy tightening steps, as expected. However, they must be taken with a grain of salt.
23-Feb-10	Trend Watch: Feb. 8-19, 2010 Trend Watch is a succinct record of data points, news items, and abstract thoughts assembled by our analysts. The report is published every two weeks, with the primary goal to identify emerging trends that have the potential to shape investment decisions.
22-Feb-10	Schlumberger and Smith Intl -- A Strategic and Natural Fit The merger of Schlumberger (SLB) and Smith International (SII) yields one dominant player in two of the premier development segments over the next decade -- shale gas and deepwater.
16-Feb-10	Credit Card Trust Data -- January 2010 The trust data for January came in modestly better than expected, but overall strength in the market due to a weaker U.S. dollar played a larger role in helping credit card issuers and bank stocks advance today.
16-Feb-10	Chinese Government at a Crossroads in 2010 More policy changes from China will come out of the National People's Congress meeting in March. Those changes remain to be seen. What we do know is that interest rates will be going up sooner rather than later.
11-Feb-10	Las Vegas Strip Gaming Revenue Increases 5.9% in December It is unclear what affect the opening of Aria, CityCenter's resort and casino, had on December's data. It is possible gamblers tried their luck there at the expense of the casinos in the locals market and downtown.
04-Feb-10	Visa, Mastercard on Different Sides Last Quarter Despite the differences between the two peers, there are two positive takeaways for the industry. First, the secular shift away from cash and check to credit and debit continues. Second, each company's volume metrics, which bottomed March of 2009, continued to improve last quarter, with some returning to double-digit growth for the first time since the September quarter of 2008.
27-Jan-10	Federal Reserve Walks the Line The Federal Open Market Committee left its target rate for the federal funds rate unchanged at 0.00% to 0.25% as expected; however, the vote was not unanimous.

30-Nov-11	Trend Watch: Nov. 7 - 25, 2011 Corporate bonds spreads have returned to elevated levels. At this point, we believe that both high yield and investment grade offer ample relative value to U.S. Treasuries. We discuss that point in this week's Trend Watch, along with other views including the trends in consumer and real estate lending, a disparity between earnings growth and price performance by sector, and the potential growth in desalination technology to meet rising water demand.
09-Nov-11	Trend Watch: Oct. 24 - Nov. 4, 2011 The Federal Reserve released a batch of credit metrics this week that showed unrealized expectations for a U.S. recession and the eurozone debt crisis slowed, but did not derail, the improvement in the credit market. We discuss that point in this week's Trend Watch, along with other views including how motor vehicle producers may have to cut prices to incentivize demand and how it may be high time for U.S. companies to boost their payout ratios.
26-Oct-11	Trend Watch: Oct. 3 - 21, 2011 A look at historical earnings estimate data shows sell-side analysts tend to underestimate the current quarter and overestimate future quarters. Indeed, sell-side analysts lowered expectations for Q3 2011 S&P 500 earnings across all sectors over the past few months. Through October 25, 73% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings that exceeded expectations. We discuss that point in this week's earnings-inspired Trend Watch, along with other views that include how Caterpillar's results underscore the strength of the commodity super cycle. We also update the trend in corporate bond spreads following this month's stunning advance in high-yield bonds.
05-Oct-11	Trend Watch: Sep. 19 - 30, 2011 As the governments of the U.S. and China quarrel over currency valuations and trade, we continue to hear calls for the U.S. dollar to lose its reserve status. We have been providing what should be fairly obvious counterarguments; in short, the U.S. has the world's largest debt market (by a wide margin), is the most established capitalistic society, and remains the world's largest economy and importer. What is lost in this argument? The secular trend away from the dollar has been ongoing for over a decade. We discuss that point in this week's Trend Watch, along with other views including the relative value of municipal bonds, the risk-reward trade-off in corporate bonds, and using Chile's stock market to trade copper.
22-Sep-11	An Argentinean Lesson for the Greeks The Greek debt crisis has drawn some comparisons to Argentina's financial crisis of 2001. The latter ultimately led to a devaluation of the peso and a debt restructuring. As an exercise, we compared the current Greek crisis with the chronology of events surrounding the Argentine crisis. The similarities are striking.
22-Sep-11	Trend Watch: Aug. 29 - Sep. 16, 2011 It is certainly plausible that economic growth will surprise to the upside as many of the constraints that hindered consumer spending and manufacturing for the first half of the year are gone. It could result in GDP exceeding the low/no growth scenario currently projected by the IMF and other prominent economists. The wildcard, however, is the only major exogenous shock that remains: the eurozone debt crisis. We discuss that point in this week's Trend Watch, along with other views that include the potential for increased social strife in the U.S. and how any real estate recovery will likely be limited, despite historically attractive pricing fundamentals.
31-Aug-11	Trend Watch: Aug. 15 - 26, 2011 With home prices still declining and interest rates at historical lows, the spread between owning and renting has fallen from just over $700 to roughly $200 per month. It would not be surprising to see the spread turn negative in the near future. At that point, it would make more financial sense to own a home than to rent. We discuss that point in this week's Trend Watch, along with other views that include utilizing yields on utilities that have risen to record levels against Treasuries, a potential bubble in farm prices, and choosing investment-grade or high-yield corporate bonds based on one's economic view.
17-Aug-11	Trend Watch: July 25 - August 12, 2011 S&P's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating initiated a flight to quality that was supportive of both Treasuries and investment-grade debt. Equities and high-yield bonds were left out in the cold. The last few days have see a slight reversal in that trend, however, at least as it pertains to corporate bonds. We discuss that point in this week's Trend Watch, along with other views including the potential effect of contingent convertible bonds on equities and preferreds, signs of a rebound in consumer lending, and a long-term argument against the dollar.
15-Aug-11	Briefing Research Chart Book: Aug. 15, 2011 The structural problems stemming from high debt loads will prevent consumption from growing at levels needed to sustain 3.0% overall GDP growth. Instead, a new, lower normal potential growth rate of 2.5% may be the best that can be obtained over the next several quarters. We do not foresee the U.S. re-entering a recession in the coming year. The data suggest the U.S. equity market is attractively priced on an historical basis and vis-a-vis the Treasury market.
27-Jul-11	Trend Watch: July 11 - 22, 2011 The second quarter earnings reporting season is continuing the trend of upside EPS beats, with 72% of companies within the S&P 500 topping expectations. Perhaps helping companies is the fact that sell-side analysts over the past month lowered EPS expectations. A look at historical estimate data from 1985 to present indicates the lowered estimates are not warning signs, but rather estimate trends returning to normal. We discuss that point in this week's Trend Watch, along with other views including a potential intervention in the yen and the economic implications of declining drug prices. We also reiterate our stance for high-yield corporate debt.
13-Jul-11	Trend Watch: June 27 - July 8, 2011 The second quarter earnings reporting season is upon us and our sense is that it could be a scattershot reporting period. Notably, the second quarter projected earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 Financials sector was 22.6% on March 31. Today, the financials sector is projected to report a 22.0% decline in second quarter earnings. The financials, therefore, seem ripe for a pop on better-than-expected results. The more telling response, though, will be how they perform in the wake of worse-than-expected results. We discuss that potential response in this week's Trend Watch, as well as other views including the outlook for China's CPI and high-yield versus investment-grade corporate debt.
22-Jun-11	Trend Watch: June 6 - 17, 2011 Greece has been at the center of market conversations for several weeks now. Fittingly, it is at the center of this week's Trend Watch, which highlights one thing Greece has been good for in recent weeks and one thing that is hard to believe when considering the costs of the bailouts. In addition, this Trend Watch calls attention to a potential rescue plan for small business lending, the disconnect in household debt ratios, and both a possible and peculiar crowding-out effect in private-sector borrowing.
08-Jun-11	Trend Watch: May 23 - June 3, 2011 Market participants are certainly showing some jitters regarding the current state of the economy, and that nervousness appears to be making the junk bond market a bit shaky. We have been of the opinion that participants should play volatile moves like this -- buying on weakness and selling on strength -- and see no reason right now to change that view. We discuss that opinion in this week's Trend Watch, as well as revisit the dislocation between available labor supply and hiring demand, explore the value-based investment opportunity vis-a-vis U.S. corporate bonds, and discuss the Chinese government's decision to write off local debt.
25-May-11	Trend Watch: May 9 - 20, 2011 RealtyTrac recently estimated that banks currently possess more than 872,000 foreclosed properties while there are more than one million homes currently in the foreclosure process and possibly several million more that will enter it. As banks attempt to shed inventory, supply will continue to outstrip demand and will push prices lower. We discuss that point in this week's Trend Watch, along with other views including which cities one should rent versus buy a home, why talk of a second recession due to the flattening of the yield curve is premature, and how changing alcohol laws may benefit distributors.
11-May-11	Trend Watch: April 25 - May 6, 2011 Global crude oil demand came in at 443,000 bpd below the EIA's projections in April. The real test will come on Memorial Day weekend. If pump prices fail to reflect the decline in oil prices, we could see demand destruction in retail gasoline consumption. We discuss that point in this week's Trend Watch, as well as revisit the current stretch for yield in the fixed income market, discuss the rising number of companies increasing/starting to pay a dividend, and review a number of economic data points.
27-Apr-11	Trend Watch: April 11 - 22, 2011 There has been a lot of chatter recently from media pundits and Congressional members saying inflation is getting out of hand. In this week's Trend Watch, we show why that view is more hype than reality. We also question whether the current stretch for yield in the fixed income market means relative safety is the new relative value, and provide our view on how a recovery in home prices may not be as swift as a recovery in the labor market.
13-Apr-11	Trend Watch: March 28 - April 8, 2011 The near- and long-term fundamentals remain very constructive for corn, even as prices accelerated to a new all-time high of $7.8375 per bushel on April 11. We discuss that point in this week's Trend Watch, along with other views including why silver has outperformed gold, how high-yield debt might be getting rich again, how the U.S. can maintain high manufacturing wages and still compete in the global economy, and how public health-care reform fixes only part of the problem.
30-Mar-11	Trend Watch: March 14 - 25, 2011 It is abundantly clear in the consensus earnings estimate trend that analysts are not abundantly worried that what is going on in China, Japan, Europe, or the MENA region is going to have a material impact on earnings prospects. We discuss that point in this week's Trend Watch, along with other views including one possible reason for subdued consumption growth in the first quarter, a discussion on U.S. airlines rethinking their fuel hedges, and the potential March Madness effect on Las Vegas.
17-Mar-11	Industry Perspective: Japan's Import/Export Markets Japan is the world's third largest economy, the fourth largest exporter and the fifth largest importer. Accordingly, the effects of the Tohoku Pacific Earthquake and tsunami will have a significant impact on certain industries, though the likely effect will be indirect. We look at Japan from an industry perspective to assess its share of global import and export markets.
16-Mar-11	Trend Watch: Feb. 28 - March 11, 2011 The Treasury market has benefitted from a flight-to-safety trade in the wake of unsettling geopolitical events. Still, there are signs that flight-to-safety trade is at a lower altitude than years past. We discuss that point in this week's Trend Watch, along with other views including insight on the price of gasoline, a solution for cutting the budget deficit, and the potential for social unrest in Mexico.
02-Mar-11	Trend Watch: Feb. 14 - 25, 2011 In this Trend Watch, we: Deflate stagflation concerns -- the current growth rate for CPI is 1.6% y/y and the six-month moving average for the diffusion index sits at 59.0, which compares to averages of 8.7% and 72.8 during the stagflation years of 1973-82. Suggest the multiplier effect from the payroll tax cut many economists counted on in raising their 2011 GDP forecasts will not be as strong as they originally thought. Discuss China's expanding purchases in the U.S. Treasury market, the only one big enough to meet the country's investment demand.
16-Feb-11	Trend Watch -- Jan. 31 - Feb. 11, 2011 What is on the other side of QE2 in June? Is the market ready for the Fed's exit? In this Trend Watch, we ponder those questions while also providing another perspective on the impact of owners' equivalent rent on inflation and discussing continued consumer deleveraging.
03-Feb-11	Trend Watch: Jan. 17 - 28, 2011 In this Trend Watch, we discuss the breakeven trade and inflation, equity outperformers underperforming in 2011, the attractiveness of BP bonds, and the widening spread between two crude oil benchmarks.
20-Jan-11	Trend Watch: Jan. 3 - 14, 2011 In this Trend Watch, we debate whether the U.S. deficit is an immediate problem, discuss mortgage servicers walking away from properties, and compare the U.S. and Chinese equity markets.
05-Jan-11	Trend Watch: Dec. 20 - 31, 2010 In this Trend Watch, we debunk one explanation for the rapid rise in Treasury yields, discuss floating-rate notes, present a new manufacturing index, and discuss the repercussions in the coal market following flooding in Australia's export region.

23-May-12	Trend Watch: May 7 - 18, 2012 The downturn in May has been fueled by the festering debt crisis in Europe, concerns about slowing economic activity in China, worries about sluggish job growth in the U.S., and a stunning revelation of a huge trading loss at JPMorgan Chase. In brief, there has been a confluence of factors that has raised the level of uncertainty for market participants who have been inclined to sell first and ask questions later. We discuss these factors in this week's Trend Watch, including: A new, more pessimistic view on the survivability of the eurozone Why the Federal Reserve's economic outlook is too bullish How we remain hesitant to initiate positions in corporate bonds A reaffirmation of our long-term view on natural gas, even as it has rallied in the face of a pullback in commodities
09-May-12	Trend Watch: April 16 - May 4, 2012 The Great Recession was driven by a credit contraction, and the U.S. continues to work its way out. Positive signs keep emerging, including new data over the last two weeks that indicate a rebound in small business lending may finally be here. Unfortunately, the credit situation continues to deteriorate in Europe. Standards loosened in the first quarter, but the reemergence of the eurozone debt crisis should lead to another round of tightening. And demand continues to decline. We discuss these points in this week's Trend Watch, as well as other views including why we would be cautious about initiating large, new positions in corporate bonds right now, and how a structural dislocation in the labor market could soften potential payroll gains.
18-Apr-12	Trend Watch: April 2 - 13, 2012 The yield on Spain’s 10-year bond has climbed from 4.58% on February 1 to as high as 6.02% on April 16. Over the same time period, the TED spread, which is regarded as a gauge of perceived credit risk in the general economy, has declined nearly 9 bps. A narrowing TED spread at this fearful juncture seems to imply that there is less fear about contagion risk from Spain hitting the U.S. economy and U.S. banks. We discuss that point in this week's Trend Watch. We also break down the Macau gaming market, including an update on our top recommendation in the industry, Las Vegas Sands, and discuss the hybrid vehicle market and its lack of customer loyalty.
04-Apr-12	Trend Watch: March 19 - 30, 2012 Friday's Prospective Plantings report from the USDA ratcheted higher the projection for corn plantings in the 2012/13 season, at the expense of both wheat and soybeans. This record-setting figure would have set a negative tone for corn prices if it were not for Friday's other release, the Grain Stocks report. We review those reports in this week's Trend Watch, while also discussing ways to invest in water, a vital resource that may begin encountering supply issues, and two new reports that say the euro area may already be out of a recession.
21-Mar-12	Trend Watch: Feb. 27 - March 16, 2012 For the first time in quite a while, we do not have a strong preference for either investment-grade or high-yield corporate bonds. We tend to favor high yield at this point, as it will generally hold up better in an environment where Treasury yields could continue to rise. We discuss those points in this week's Trend Watch. We also preview two highly-anticipated grain reports from the USDA and take exception to those pundits who claim quantitative easing is the only reason why the equity market has rallied.
07-Mar-12	Banks Are Stressed Out and Better for It The long-term investment outlook for the large bank holding companies is getting better, not worse, because of the increased regulatory standards. The results of the Federal Reserve’s 2012 Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review should demonstrate that large bank holding companies are better investments today because they have a lower risk profile and can withstand stress scenarios that are even more rigorous than the scenarios considered at the time of the first stress test in 2009, when the world was a more stressful place. In this note, we highlight the improving capital ratio trends for the large bank holding companies and discuss other factors underpinning their improving investment outlook.
01-Mar-12	Trend Watch: Feb. 6 - 24, 2012 The major headwind for the financial sector has been the eurozone debt crisis. A more challenging earnings environment has also acted as a restraint to upside moves. From our vantage point, the more important development is that declines have been less severe during turbulent periods, as that suggests a diminution of worst-case fears. In brief, we see a transition unfolding where the financial stocks are no longer being looked at solely as trading vehicles, but as long-term investments, once again. We discuss that point in this week's Trend Watch, as well as other views that include an adjustment to our bullish stance on corporate bonds and a potential boost to the new home sector.
08-Feb-12	Trend Watch: Jan. 23 - Feb. 3, 2012 The S&P 500 has gotten off to a banner start in 2012, up 7.1%. That stellar return has caught many sidelined investors by surprise. That is not the case for Wall Street strategists, however. The question today is, will these strategists get more aggressive with their price targets or will they turn conservative knowing they can already claim price target victory? We discuss that point in this week's Trend Watch, along with other views including our bullish stance on copper and how high-yield bonds, while no longer cheap, still have more upside than investment-grade bonds relative to U.S. Treasuries.
25-Jan-12	Trend Watch: Jan. 9 - 20, 2012 With 20% of S&P 500 companies having reported through January 23, 58% have exceeded estimates. However, the new, blended EPS growth expectation has fallen to 5.9%. That indicates the trend we have highlighted in prior quarters, that sell-side analysts tend to underestimate the current quarter, may not hold in Q4 2011. At the same time, though, earnings estimates for 2012 and 2013 have inched higher. We discuss those points in this week's Trend Watch, along with other views that include how we continue to favor high-yield debt and how a lasting asset allocation shift and larger corporate investment could lead to outperformance in the U.S. equity market and the U.S. economy.
18-Jan-12	To Combat Rising Debt, Governments Roll the Dice The overriding theme in the U.S. gaming market is the quest for tax revenue. While debt burdens will not go away, the trend of regional gaming expansion may be in its late stages due to rising competition driven by gaming market saturation. That theme may be exported to Asia. Developed markets such as Japan are considering a significant expansion in gaming to combat struggling economies, rising debt levels and decreasing tourism. It is simply too early to predict winners in any of these developing gaming markets. While publicly-traded operators will battle for the remaining growth markets in the U.S., the industry will shift toward online gaming and further Asian expansion.
11-Jan-12	Trend Watch: Dec. 19, 2011 - Jan. 6, 2012 Even though most consensus forecasters are predicting above potential GDP growth in the fourth quarter, the consensus estimates for daily economic data have been extremely pessimistic. In fact, the pessimism is so strong that the Briefing Research Daily Surprise Index is showing the real economy is outperforming consensus expectations by the largest amount since the index was created in 2000. We discuss that point in this week's Trend Watch, along with other views including how demand could be the swing factor for crude oil prices in 2012 and how high-yields bonds may have more upside than investment-grade bonds relative to U.S. Treasuries.
05-Jan-12	Briefing Research Chart Book: January 2012 The S&P 500 is more attractively priced for long-term price appreciation today than it was when 2011 started. The forward four-quarter earnings yield for the S&P 500 is 8.6% versus 7.7% at the end of 2010. Moreover, the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield stands at 670 bps today versus 470 bps when 2011 began, reinforcing our view that equities offer better long-term relative value over bonds at current prices. The Briefing Research Chart Book provides a telling snapshot of our fundamentally-based argument, as well as an accompanying picture of key trends for the U.S. economy and the fixed income, commodities, and currency markets.

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